| Durant Makes Thunderous Strides Authored by Andrew Perna - April 10, 2009 - 3:16 pm
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Two years later, the Class of 2007 has proved to be rather strong. Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Thaddeus Young, Rodney Stuckey, Daequan Cook, Rudy Fernandez, Carl Landry, and Glen Davis are all playing important roles for playoff-bound teams this season.
Oden, who was selected first overall by Portland, is coming around after a series of injuries placed a considerable amount of doubt over his career. He'll probably play in 60 games in this season, his first after sitting out his true rookie campaign in the wake of serious knee surgery.
He's averaging 8.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 21.6 minutes per night. Oden is hitting 56.3% of his shot attempts, and is a solid +126 for the season. On the year, Portland has outscored opponents by a total of 359 points.
Oden is playing on the better team, but two years into their careers, Durant is clearly the better NBA player.
It's not fair to evaluate Oden's play strictly on the 57 games he's played through Thursday night, and the fact that they play different positions and roles on the floor should be noted, but the Texas alum is a lot close to superstar status than the former Buckeye.
Entering the league, there were no doubts about Durant's athleticism and sheer talent. Built like a gazelle, which he still is, he was knocked for his absence of strength and the lack of true competition in school.
His rookie year was an expected success, and with Oden out for the season, he took home the 2007-08 NBA Rookie of the Year award, edging out Horford.
Durant played in 80 games, posting 20.3 points and 4.4 rebounds on 43.0% shooting from the field and 28.8% from three-point land. He averaged 1.18 points per shot, slightly below average, even for a volume scorer.
Unlike most rookies, playing in a six-month season for the first time in their basketball career, Durant blasted through the perceived "rookie wall." The two best months of his 2007-08 season were in March (21.8 points on 52.6 FG%) and April (24.3 points on 46.1 FG%).
Such a spike in play was impressive coming from a player that shot around 40% from the floor through the season's first four months. He hit a lull in January, contributing 18.1 points on 37.6% shooting for the soon-to-be-moved Supersonics.
If there was a knock on Durant after his first season, it was his sometimes questionable shot selection and poor percentages. Of course, I wouldn't discount the fact that he played an entire year under the black cloud that was the team's move from Seattle to Oklahoma City, and that the club won just 20 games.
His hard work and maturity, along with the firing of coach P.J. Carlesimo, has allowed him to blossom into a true NBA star in 2009. Interim coach Scott Brooks, who replaced Carlesimo, quickly moved Durant from shooting guard to small forward, a position better suited for the versatile, 6"10" player.
Under Carlesimo, Durant averaged 22.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.9 assists on 46.5% shooting. In 55 games since Carlesimo was fired, and as a small forward, he is putting up 26.4 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 48.2% shooting.
He's also deadlier from long-range, hitting 42.8% (over 40.9% as a two-guard) and attempting more three-pointers per game (3.4 to 1.6). As a forward, he's spending less time on the perimeter, allowing himself to grab more rebounds and, at times, bring slower players away from the basket for deep jumpers.
Playing the forward position has also allowed Durant to draw more contact, increasing his trips to the charity stripe (7.7, up from 5.0), of which he's draining 86.5%.
He's also better in Oklahoma City's wins, which is rare for the best player on a poor team. Durant is averaging 2.6 points, 1.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, and four more minutes per victory, while canning an impressive 50.9% of his shots.
Durant ranks 20th in the NBA in terms of RealGM's FIC (Floor Impact Counter) statistic, and is tops among sophomores. He'd rank even higher if he hadn't missed time with an ankle injury in early March.
He has some work to do in the clutch, he hits just 35.5% of his shots late in the fourth quarter and overtime, but the Thunder are rarely within striking distance towards the end of games.
His plus/minus is a depressing -470, but the Thunder are down about 500 points on the season. It would be nice to see him reduce his turnovers (3.1 per game), but he does touch the ball a lot on offense and guys like Stephen Jackson (3.9), Dwyane Wade (3.5), Caron Butler (3.1), Carmelo Anthony (3.0), and LeBron James (2.9) are criminal offenders as well.
He's a lock to finish in the top six in scoring, and currently sits fourth alongside Dirk Nowitzki. You have to shake your head, similar to the way we did with LeBron a few years ago, when you realize he can't even legally drink a beer.
LeBron's numbers in 2004-05, his second season, were comparable to Durant's. The only thing James really had on Durant in his sophomore campaign was his passing. He averaged 7.2 assists a game, against Durant's 2.8.
With that said, Durant is more reliable from three-point range and the foul line, and has the height and instincts to become a better rebounder. He'll need to focus on improving his defense, which shouldn't be too hard with an otherworldly wingspan, and his ability to find teammates in their comfort zone on the court.
James, keeping with the comparison, was playing on a team that lacked an above-average point guard early in his career, while the Thunder have been content to allow rookie Russell Westbrook to learn on the job this season. Assuming Westbrook remains in Oklahoma City, and improves his own passing, I don't ever see Durant reaching James in terms of triple-double potential.
Either way, the Thunder will take an elite scorer that is still improving, but also one of the best in the game at the ripe age of 20.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM’s Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. |
