| 2009-10 Season Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder Authored by Christopher Reina - October 30, 2009 - 1:38 am
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: -10.4 (24th)
Key Additions: Etan Thomas, Ryan Bowen
Key Subtractions: Damien Wilkins, Earl Watson
Key Rookies: James Harden, Serge Ibaka, B.J. Mullens
Probable Starters: Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefalosha, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic
Point Guard: The Thunder have a high ceiling point guard that can defend three positions in Russell Westbrook, who is the most likely member of this team to become the Robin to Kevin Durant's Batman. He's a natural playmaker, but still is relatively new to the point guard position and will have a natural evolution in his assist/turnover ratio that could become quite excellent for a player of his athletic skill set.
He needs to be a more reliable mid-range jumper and also become proficient enough from distance to keep his man from sagging off of him whether he has the ball or not. He had a True Shooting Percentage of 48.9% and shot just 27.1% from beyond the arc. But Westbrook did shoot 81.% from the line, which is a positive sign for his future as a shooter.
If Westbrook were to go down with a significant injury, Oklahoma City would have to turn to a free agent point guard like Jamaal Tinsley in order to keep the team afloat because they have virtually no depth at the position. Kevin Ollie, Shaun Livingston and Kyle Weaver could each man the position to spell Westbrook, but are clearly not reliable options for any extended number of games.
Swingmen: With Durant and James Harden, the Thunder will have one of the most lethal offensive pairs on the wing for the next decade. For now, Thabo Sefolosha will play a significant number of minutes at the shooting guard slot where he will be asked to play a caddy role offensively and take the more difficult defensive assignments. He has a career TS% of .490, which firmly places him in relatively ordinary company offensively, particularly with his usage rate.
As far as Durant is concerned, my opinion on him was the premise of an extended article on Oklahoma City's championship potential, which can be read by clicking here. The basic premise is Durant is a supremely talented scorer, but he must become a significantly better passer and defender in order to truly become an elite player in the category of LeBron James or Kobe Bryant. The very fact that there is a debate on whether or not he will join that group someday is a clear indicator of how pretty damn good he is.
The Thunder will increase Harden's minutes gradually as the season progresses. His transition from the Pac-10 should be fairly seamless given his strength and throwback scoring style.
Frontcourt: The Thunder have several nice pieces in the frontcourt, but are either underwhelming or unproven.
Jeff Green is a tweener in the Antawn Jamison sense of a forward that isn't really a power forward or small forward. His TS% climbed from .491 to .536 last season, but his rebound rate stayed relatively low for a power forward at 10.4%. Given the fact that Westbrook is unlikely to ever be a reliable 3-point shooter, they have a better chance in spreading the floor via Green. The most ideal fit for their club would be for Green to develop into a more athletic/better defender version of Troy Murphy with comparable efficiency as a shooter and rebounder.
Nenad Krstic was a shrewd pickup by Sam Presti and brings some transitional stability to the center position. He has regressed from those early seasons playing with Jason Kidd in New Jersey, but in an NBA so sparse with quality centers, he is serviceable.
Nick Collison doesn't figure to be around when the Thunder begin competing in earnest, but he is one of the NBA's most underrated big men. He isn't that old, however, and is extremely efficient on the glass and as a scorer.
I love the potential of both Serge Ibaka and B.J. (is he now going by Byron?) Mullens. The odds are against both big men emerging as productive NBA players, but the Thunder could afford to go 1-for-2 given how many assets they have.
The overall problem with the frontcourt is that they are undersized, which creates not enough easy buckets offensively and too many allowed on the defensive end.
Forecast: The Thunder could find a way into the playoffs, but Presti's refusal to deviate from his long term plans when he had cap space to utilize this past summer makes that an order too tall for the impressively rapid development of their core.
I expect Durant and Westbrook to emerge as legitimate All-Star caliber players by season's end and Presti will see enough of his collection of other assets to know where a major roster shakeup will need to take place next summer. |
